Monsoon Crucial For India

Monsoon Crucial For India

India has been lucky with falling world prices of crude oil and commodities. However, the economic growth in the next fiscal year to one important factor: ' normal ' seasonal wind.

Classification of krisil company projects growth of 7.9 percent for the next fiscal and India is higher than the 7.6 percent growth expected in the current fiscal year. But to achieve this growth needs shape India blessings God of rain. "We have revised down our financial forecast from 8.1 percent earlier due to intensifying global adverse."

"So far, a modest recovery of the economy has been shaped by luck on crude oil and commodities, and a supportive political environment. While it is expected to continue, India cannot afford a third time and unlucky with the rain, "krisil said.

Global economy continues to slow. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank already has lowered the global growth forecast to 2016 from 20 to 40 basis points (bps), respectively.

The next fiscal, krisil expects consumer price inflation (CPI) remain smooth 5% is unchanged from 2016. That is assuming normal monsoon, and the least decline in oil and commodity prices, and sticky services components sector for consumer prices.

As for the current account deficit (CAD), expect moderate upward pressure of imports to increase the potential for the recovery of investment and consumption. Exports, meanwhile, are expected to stay in the swamp. The result is that we see almost slow up to 1.6 per cent of GDP next fiscal than expected 1.3 percent in the current fiscal year.

The rupiah supported improving the mix of inflation growth and sufficient foreign exchange reserves, low inflation and a CAD. Krisil also expects the Government to improve the ease of doing business even more, passing important reforms, such as the goods and services tax (GST), which can improve the appetite of investors. "We expect that the rupee settling around $ 65 by 31 March 2017.

In fact, the next fiscal year will be closely for further reforms and implement operational procedures that already announced. It will be Bank slips and FIR sway reduction in infrastructure and other sectors, and asset distribution companies pulled out of the financial predicament. Will the speed of enactment of the goods and services tax, bankruptcy rate of physical growth potential in India.